Cold front could bring severe weather, large hail to San Antonio

It’s been a relatively dry and warm week in San Antonio despite a slight uptick in rain chances at the start of the week. However, all that could change as the week comes to a close, according to a situation report issued by the local National Weather Service office.

A fog has fallen over the city Tuesday morning, March 5, but the skies are set to clear and bring another sunny March day to the Alamo City. But don’t get too used to the sunshine, as thunderstorms are slated to hit the region by Thursday.

“Fog in the morning and then turning warm in the afternoon with highs in the 80s and even low 90s along the Rio Grande under mostly sunny to sunny skies,” the National Weather Service tweeted Tuesday morning. “Next chance for showers and storms comes on Thursday evening into Friday. Cooler over the weekend.”

Along with all these thunderstorms comes a risk of large hail, according to warning sent out by the agency. Much of San Antonio remains at a Level 1 of 5 risk for a severe thunderstorm, but the Texas Hill Country – think Boerne, Kerrville, Fredericksburg, and up to Burnet – sit at a Level 2 risk for severe storms.

“The main threat is large hail,” the warning reads. “Forecast confidence is low due to uncertain timing and location of storms.”

However, don’t go fleeing the city just yet, as National Weather Service Meteorologist Mack Morris told MySA confidence levels in the forecast are much lower than usual. But MySA will continue to keep you updated as the day of storm chances approaches.

All these gloomy forecasts are tied both a dry-line – where dry air from up Mexico and West Texas converges with humid air from the Texas Gulf Coast creating showers – and a cold front moving across the state from up north. While it won’t quite be winter coat weather for much of South Central Texas, city dwellers in San Antonio and Austin can expect a slight reprieve from 80-degree days.

Morris said there’s going to be a bout a 10-15 degree drop in temperatures, with highs hovering around the 60s over the weekend in San Antonio and Austin. For the Hill Country hamlets around San Antonio, temperatures Sunday morning could even dip down into the low 40s before warming up a bit by the afternoon – certainly not a freeze, but a welcome change to the warmer days of late.

If storms do roll into San Antonio, Morris says rain totals will likely be less than .25 inch, likely falling somewhere between .1 and .2 inches. However, he admitted thunderstorms can be tricky to forecast in terms of rain totals.

So, it’s not quite the wild weather spring is known to bring the region, but it’s certainly a welcome start to the season when rain is much needed and temperatures are already starting to feel like summer.